NFL Week 4 DFS
Far too often in fantasy football, people worry about selecting too many players from one NFL team. They think, But what if the whole team has a bad day and I lose big? I believe that the inverse question doesn’t get asked nearly enough, though: what if the whole team has a great day and you win big?
This, my friends, is the concept of stacking in fantasy sports: the notion that assembling multiple players on one team that are in a good projected matchup will lead to more high-end outcomes in the long run than they will stinkers. In addition, as 4for4.com’s Sam Hoppen writes, “[When] you invest more of your lineup capital into one team (or game)… you only need to get that situation correct instead of relying on two or three sets of players to hit.” Stacking — and understanding stack theory — is crucial to nailing both your cash and tournament lineups on a consistent basis. Each week, we’ll explore a few of the top stacks available using 4for4’s Stack Value Reports Tool.
Which high-upside games and lineup situations should you target in DFS?
Buffalo Bills (-17.5) vs. Houston Texans; O/U 47
QB Josh Allen, BUF ($8000 DK/$8500 FD)
WR Stefon Diggs, BUF ($7600 DK/$8000 FD)
The Buffalo Bills are one of the teams to beat for upside expectation in Week 4. Last week saw them put a hurting on the Washington Football Team — an actually strong defense — with quarterback Josh Allen touching them up for 358 yards and four touchdowns through the air, with another nine yards and a score on the ground. Top wide receiver Stefon Diggs caught six of his 10 targets in that game for 62 yards (though no score), and now has a team target share of 26.7% — the 18th-highest mark in the NFL. Allen seems to be regaining his middle-distance and deep touch that he developed in 2020 and Diggs remains one of the most heavily utilized WR1’s in the league, making this an obvious fit for the week’s top stack to highlight. 4for4’s models project this duo for a 65.9 DK point/60.1 FD point ceiling.
The only downside here is that most everyone else also believes that the Buffalo Bills are a good stack. 4for4’s DFS Rostership Projections Tool indicates that Allen is likely to be the highest-rostered quarterback on the main slate in Week 4, at 10–20% depending on the site. Diggs projects as the sixth-most rostered wide receiver, at 15–20%. A way to build onto this stack while adding in some more leverage would be to consider splashing for running back Zack Moss, who is handling a significant number of the Bills’ goal-line touches since returning from injury. In a game that Buffalo should win handily, Moss might end up grinding out the clock on the ground and could fall into the end zone a few times. Plus, he’s projected for just 1–5% rostership.
Consider Adding: RB Zack Moss, BUF ($5300 DK/$6000 FD); WR Cole Beasley, BUF ($5400 DK/$5900 FD); WR Brandin Cooks, HOU ($6400 DK/$6900 FD).
Arizona Cardinals (+4) at Los Angeles Rams; O/U 54.5
QB Kyler Murray, ARZ ($7800 DK/$8200 FD)
WR Christian Kirk, ARZ ($5300 DK/$6000 FD)
I could go either way on which team in this game to use, but I want to build a more contrarian option for you in this second stack for Week 4. Since Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is projected as the highest-rostered wide receiver this week (20–30% rostership), I’m going with the Arizona Cardinals half. This game is tied for the highest total of the week, meaning the offenses have a good chance to pop off here. With Arizona projected as slight underdogs, quarterback Kyler Murray and his wide receivers should be playing “pitch-and-catchup” in a negative game script for a decent portion of the game.
I didn’t highlight DeAndre Hopkins as the receiver to start here due to the fairly even team target shares being spread throughout the offense and Hopkins’ higher salary tag. Instead, you can save some budget and also get the Cardinals’ top receiver in team air yards share (33.3%) with Christian Kirk. Kirk so far hasn’t had fewer than 65 receiving yards or three catches in a game, and led the team in targets in Week 3 with eight. Kirk is likely to be rostered in fewer than 5% of lineups this week, and Murray is projected for about 5–10%, making this a solidly undervalued stack.
If I were to three-stack this lineup and keep it somewhat contrarian, I’d consider rolling out Rams wide receiver Robert Woods. Woods is seeing a strong 20.4% target share, good for second on the team, and could be an afterthought for some DFS players who see the immense production Kupp has soaked up. “Running it back” with an opposing receiver instead of Hopkins or A.J. Green allows us to capture some of the fantasy potential that both sides of this likely high-scoring slugfest should bring, so I’d recommend looking at Woods, Van Jefferson, or even L.A. tight end Tyler Higbee.
Consider Adding: WR DeAndre Hopkins, ARZ ($7700 DK/$7600 FD); WR Robert Woods, LAR ($5300 DK/$6200 FD); WR Van Jefferson, LAR ($3900 DK/$5000 FD); TE Tyler Higbee, LAR ($4600 DK/$5900 FD).
Miami Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts; O/U 42.5
QB Jacoby Brissett, MIA ($5100 DK/$6500 FD)
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA ($4900 DK/$5400 FD)
Our discount stack of the week has to be the Miami Dolphins, who go up against the Indianapolis Colts — a bottom 11 defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett isn’t the most prolific fantasy option ever, but he is extremely budget-conscious as an option and still projects just outside the top-20 quarterbacks in 4for4’s models for Week 4. The move here is to stack him with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who runs almost 80% of his routes from the slot — an area of the field where the Colts have struggled mightily — and allow yourself the budget flexibility to grab some stars at other spots to fill out your lineup.
The low total in this game means it’s not likely we’ll want to look at stacking an opposing receiver in this one (though Indy’s Michael Pittman Jr. is also very affordable). If you end up making a three-man stack here, which I’d lean away from, Miami running back Myles Gaskin is the recommended play. The Dolphins have him rushing for a majority of their running back attempts, and may need to control the ball to eke out a close win. None of Brissett, Waddle, or Gaskin should be rostered in more than 5–10% of contests this week either.
Consider Adding: RB Myles Gaskin, MIA ($5300 DK/$5500 FD); WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND ($5400 DK/$5800 FD); TE Mike Gesicki, MIA ($4000 DK/$5400 FD).
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers; O/U 45.5
RB Aaron Jones, GB ($7800 DK/$8200 FD)
DEF Packers, GB ($3300 DK/$4200 FD)
Our wild-card stack of the week is another RB/DEF pairing, with the offensive engine of the Green Bay Packers — running back Aaron Jones — and the Pack’s suspect secondary against the supremely washed Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. I want to start by saying that this is neither the highest-ceilinged RB/DEF stack in the 4for4 models, nor is it the cheapest, but this is one you could look to as a little more of a contrarian play with such extremely chalky top defensive options in Week 4.
Jones keeps getting a ridiculous amount of touches, and seems to dominate the ball in Green Bay wins — which this game projects to be. He is their guy in the passing game, their guy in the red-zone, and their guy for the big plays, so I would feel very secure rolling out Jones this week despite the Steelers’ sixth-lowest schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Pittsburgh isn’t particularly tasty for defenses either: they are 10th-lowest in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to defensive units as well. Still, the Black-and-Yellow allowed four sacks in Week 3 to a Cincinnati Bengals unit that lacks high-end pressure rates; perhaps Green Bay’s defense can overcome its own lack of pressure and get home a few times. Link Link